William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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A STUNNING POLL RESULT – AT 1:29 P.M. ET:  The Dems dream of taking back Congress in November and leading us toward a Leninist lite revolution, in the Obama tradition.  The voters aren't necessarily buying.  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

A majority of respondents in a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters said Democratic congressional candidates are out of step with most Americans.

Asked whether Democratic candidates' approaches to the issues "are generally in the mainstream of most Americans' thinking, or are generally out of step with most Americans' thinking," 56 percent said they are "out of step" and just one-third said they are "in the mainstream." These figures are a marked swing from July 2016, when only 42 percent of respondents said Democratic congressional candidates were out of step and 48 percent said they were in the mainstream.

In the July 2016 poll, Republican candidates were seen as much less mainstream than Democrats, with 31 percent of respondents saying the Republicans were in the mainstream and 59 percent saying they were out of step. A slightly higher percentage of respondents in July 2018 see Republicans as mainstream (33 percent) and a slightly smaller percentage of them see Republicans as out of step (57 percent.)

That makes the current numbers nearly identical for both parties' candidates.

COMMENT:  The poll may seem a bit confusing at first, but the bottom line is that both parties are unpopular, with no edge for the Democrats.  In order to take back Congress, the Dems would need a substantial lead in public approval, and that lead just isn't there.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows the Dems leading in the generic battle for Congress by six points, as of this morning, which is not much of a lead.  They'll need more favorability than that to take back either House, and the Republicans haven't even begun their major campaign.  Trump will be on the campaign trail, where his mission will be to energize the party base and get it to the polls.

July 23,  2018